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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Why would they feel that way about the 3DS? It sold a very respectable number of units and wasn’t it profitable for them?
It was mainly due to those first five months. It started off real slow out the gate due to a nasty combination of:
  • High price
  • No 1st party software
  • 3rd party software no existing/being cancelled
  • Uninteresting gimmick in 3D
  • 3D being perceived as harmful to children
This ultimately resulted in them having to slash the price, was part of the reason they went into the red for the first time, having Iwata apologize & do things like the ambassador games. Even calls for some of the boards heads were rumoured. It was not a particularly great time for Nintendo.
 
Tinfoil hat: I do believe the 3DS is partly responsible for the conservative route Nintendo is taking with the Switch 2.
I’m curious why you think that?

Is it because of building a software lineups, The specs or whatever it is.

Since I think the Switch 2 is probably one of Nintendo only console that isn’t rushed or even forced to come out because of fading popularity, like the DS and Wii.
 
Our iPhones today are much more powerful than the entire mainframe room worth of computers back in 1960's in the NASA rooms. Those AI models/agents will take smaller and smaller footprints over time.

Heck, you could even ask AI in the near future how they could improve upon exactly the issue you brought up, "AI uses a lot of data". How can things be optimized? Maybe AI would find novel ways to compress data that we humans never thought would have been theoretically possible..

All this hypothesizing aside.. something they could do in the interim is not to have AI do dialogue on the fly, but to generate tons and tons of dialogue, in many languages, for small amount of setup time. Write those into the hard storage of the gamecard/disc/whatever (so no AI is running). That's something pretty plausible in the short term.

Also imagine sharing rough conceptual drawings of a landscape, showing it to AI. AI builds out 3D models, saving tons of time.

Doesn't mean there won't be some human cleanup/editing required. Humans would want to check everything to ensure what goes out there is all good (basically humans doing QA on AI generated stuff)
That doesn't really seem to be the direction that LLMs and other similar "generative" models are moving. Seems more like they're going to just keep getting bigger until the bubble bursts.
 
I’m curious why you think that?

Is it because of building a software lineups, The specs or whatever it is.

Since I think the Switch 2 is probably one of Nintendo only console that isn’t rushed or even forced to come out because of fading popularity, like the DS and Wii.

It just feels same-ish. The 3DS and Switch 2 are both following up extremely extremely successful paradigm shifting platforms and attempting to iterate off of them. If rumors are to be believed, Switch 2 "could" also have a high price tag just like 3DS did at its time.

I've always felt like the switch 2 is a trap waiting for Nintendo and they should proceed carefully with the lessons learned from the 3DS in mind. There is one big advantage that the switch 2 will have over 3DS.

Unified software development teams. The most underrated, biggest, and best game changer to how Nintendo operates. With time, It will prove to be better than the blue ocean strategy pivot Iwata did /hot take
 
They might be in a lull, depending on when their budgetary processes take place for annual increases, promotions, and recruiting approvals. I usually don't follow their postings closely enough to know what is normal at different times of the year though. I'd probably defer to you lol.

They've certainly been growing at a much more rapid pace in recent years than in generations past, and the comments from Furukawa would indicate that it will continue. Based on the special spending previously outlined for recruitment, and the new building, it seems unlikely they have any intention of stopping.
yeah, zelda, 2d mario, fire emblem, splatoon, pikmin, xenoblade, prime 5 must be all in prototype phase while the launch games and last switch games like fe4 remake,mario party and prime 4 are almost done, probably next year they gonna ramp up

No? Why would we expect mass hirings? Nintendo has been growing for a while, and it’s awfully late to be hiring up. If you were hiring up for the launch, you’d start three years ago.
not all of nintendo, unless they finishing a launch window this is really weird, above all for the dev of one of switch's graphic showcase
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I'd love to hear more of this. We never get this kind of insight into what Nintendo really thinks about their own products.
3DS was an iterative successor to the DS, it looked like and was marketed as a straightforward upgrade to the DS and initial hype was pretty good.
But it had a long announce to release cycle they announced/revealed E3 2010 and didn't come out until Feb of 2011, by that time a lot of hype had worn off, in part because the launch window titles were mostly 3rd party ports of old console games, and Nintendo had b-tier stuff , mobile tech was moving so fast it looked less impressive every week, Sony revealed the VITA/NGP after the 3DS with agressive pricing, and of course the price was too high.

I can see why Nintendo felt it was a gut punch, and also probably why they would feel nervous with the Switch 2 if it is as we suspect an iterative successor. They will want to get everything right, and the internal delay suggests this too. I suspect they will follow the Switch marketing cycle. Late fall reveal, Early 2015 presentation with full look at the games coming/pricing, and bang launch a month later. Guaranteed strong launch window lineup with a Zelda and a Mario in the first year plus very likely MK9 or some sort of Mario Kart game as well.
 
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It was mainly due to those first five months. It started off real slow out the gate due to a nasty combination of:
  • High price
  • No 1st party software
  • 3rd party software no existing/being cancelled
  • Uninteresting gimmick in 3D
  • 3D being perceived as harmful to children
This ultimately resulted in them having to slash the price, was part of the reason they went into the red for the first time, having Iwata apologize & do things like the ambassador games. Even calls for some of the boards heads were rumoured. It was not a particularly great time for Nintendo.
Ultimately the biggest reason why the 3DS had a slow start was software. The launch lineup had no killer app - the flagship titles were a nearly tech demo-level Pilotwings game and Nintendogs. Mario didn't come out until the end of the year. Aside from the literal tech demos bundled with the console there wasn't anything making great use of the 3D despite it initially being pushed as the main selling point.
 
I'd imagine Nintendo was blindsided in a lot of ways with what happened to the 3DS.

  • Priced it with high confidence expecting to make quite a bit on each unit
  • Were vocally being fairly derisive of mobile/iPhone gaming and indie developers at that time.
  • Were in many ways operating inside a bubble in that era, as evidenced by the above, but also from stories we've heard about the 3DS/WiiU era.
  • Which bearing in mind they had been very successful with being out of step during the Wii/DS era, where they got away with wild talking points like consumers not caring about online gaming.
Point being, the 3DS was probably a massive bubble bursting moment internally for a number of their practices and philosophies, which was further cemented with the WiiU. They got clobbered on price, a large portion of their casual and handheld market was absorbed by mobile games, and they suddenly looked totally out of step with the gaming audience.
 
That doesn't really seem to be the direction that LLMs and other similar "generative" models are moving. Seems more like they're going to just keep getting bigger until the bubble bursts.
I'm not sure what you're trying to say here. So like a balloon that keep expanding until it bursts? Huh?

Edit: OH, the footprints of the LLMs, gotcha. Sorry, it've been a long day. Yes, the LLMs have been getting bigger, but I don't think it'll continue on that trajectory forever. Eventually the AI might start optimizing itself and realize it can function better with taking up as much footprint. We're literally in the infancy stages here with AI technology in general.
 
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I'd imagine Nintendo was blindsided in a lot of ways with what happened to the 3DS.

  • Priced it with high confidence expecting to make quite a bit on each unit
  • Were vocally being fairly derisive of mobile/iPhone gaming and indie developers at that time.
  • Were in many ways operating inside a bubble in that era, as evidenced by the above, but also from stories we've heard about the 3DS/WiiU era.
  • Which bearing in mind they had been very successful with being out of step during the Wii/DS era, where they got away with wild talking points like consumers not caring about online gaming.
Point being, the 3DS was probably a massive bubble bursting moment internally for a number of their practices and philosophies, which was further cemented with the WiiU. They got clobbered on price, a large portion of their casual and handheld market was absorbed by mobile games, and they suddenly looked totally out of step with the gaming audience.
It didn't help that they bet massively on gimmicks with the 3DS and Wii U that failed almost immediately, and those gimmicks were quite pricey. 3D gaming never took off like they expected, and they spent a bunch of money on screens that would have been better spent on the chip.
 
Ultimately the biggest reason why the 3DS had a slow start was software. The launch lineup had no killer app - the flagship titles were a nearly tech demo-level Pilotwings game and Nintendogs. Mario didn't come out until the end of the year. Aside from the literal tech demos bundled with the console there wasn't anything making great use of the 3D despite it initially being pushed as the main selling point.
I wouldn’t say it was the biggest reason. The overall package for 3DS early on was quite unappealing. Even had Mario appeared early the 1st party software dearth still would have persisted. Combine that with the high price & momentum still would have been slowed until the price drop & more consistent 1st party software.
 
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It just feels same-ish. The 3DS and Switch 2 are both following up extremely extremely successful paradigm shifting platforms and attempting to iterate off of them. If rumors are to be believed, Switch 2 "could" also have a high price tag just like 3DS did at its time.

I've always felt like the switch 2 is a trap waiting for Nintendo and they should proceed carefully with the lessons learned from the 3DS in mind. There is one big advantage that the switch 2 will have over 3DS.

Unified software development teams. The most underrated, biggest, and best game changer to how Nintendo operates. With time, It will prove to be better than the blue ocean strategy pivot Iwata did /hot take

Not sure why we are comparing the 3ds to Switch 2 but okay...
The 3ds had a poor perception of value and that's why it wasn't as successful as its predecessor.
Switch on the other hand has ushered in the reality that we can enjoy full home console like games on the go (Switch 2 will no doubt only expound upon this notion).

The Switch platform has sold 140+ million units all the while not receiving an official price drop (selling very well going on its 8th year on the market). So I'm not sure how 3ds is relevant at all, because it couldn't come close to this level of success even with all of the many iterations it received. Also no other manufacturers moved to make a bunch of handheld gaming devices modeled after the 3ds, but the Switch has many spawns out here and yet the anticipation is at a breakneck pace to cover anything remotely related to Switch 2 news on a weekly basis...
 
Isnt weird that theres no mass hirings going on ? things are too quiet nowadays,it dont even feel like most teams are right now developing for a system 10x more powerfull, most nintendo affiliate studios have less open positions than usual, next level games is not even hiring anyone, nintendo for the first time since 2017 have 0 contracts open,wonder if there will be more cross gen titles than people expect
Maybe they're acquiring a company "platinum games ,etc... "

from the last Q&A:
"Although development resources could be expanded through M&A, first we will work within the company with our developers, who thoroughly understand and have built up the Nintendo brand over the years, to have them nurture talent who can drive Nintendo's future development."

 
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That is a pretty tall order for maybe 21 months on the market.
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But putting unit numbers aside, the timing would be pretty similar to when GBA, DS, Switch got their first major Pokémon releases. Black 2 and White 2 arrived for DS well after 3DS's release, but even that was only 16 months (Japanese dates).

A rerun, but I think with proper scaling it'll usually be hard to tell the difference.
What scaling do most modern TVs use? I recently moved on from a 2017 1080p Samsung and damn you sure could tell on that thing.

Idk, my experiences with 720p content on 1080p screens makes that sound like wishful thinking to me. (I’m on mobile so I can’t really examine your test images!)

Now sure the smaller screen will help (my TV was 50”) but I can’t imagine it mitigated it completely
 
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I'm not sure what you're trying to say here. So like a balloon that keep expanding until it bursts? Huh?

Edit: OH, the footprints of the LLMs, gotcha. Sorry, it've been a long day. Yes, the LLMs have been getting bigger, but I don't think it'll continue on that trajectory forever. Eventually the AI might start optimizing itself and realize it can function better with taking up as much footprint. We're literally in the infancy stages here with AI technology in general.
An AI "optimizing itself" is something that only happens in science fiction. A lot of that sort of talk originates from very handwavy (and frankly pretty cultish) "singularity" discourse that treats intelligence as some sort of fundamental quantity that's always going up which is just completely detached from the real world.

AI is not a young field of computer science, and it is one typified by boom and bust cycles where new developments get massively overhyped until the reality of what the techniques are actually capable of sets in and interest dries up. The next AI winter is most assuredly coming with the current "generative AI" bubble that's formed, and it may not even be all that far off.
 
Maybe they're acquiring a company "platinum games ,etc... "

from the last Q&A:
"Although development resources could be expanded through M&A, first we will work within the company with our developers, who thoroughly understand and have built up the Nintendo brand over the years, to have them nurture talent who can drive Nintendo's future development."

i really don't want them to do that, platinums collaborations with nintendo are amazing but they deserve to be independent and not a subsidiary
 
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Not sure why we are comparing the 3ds to Switch 2 but okay...
The 3ds had a poor perception of value and that's why it wasn't as successful as its predecessor.
Switch on the other hand has ushered in the reality that we can enjoy full home console like games on the go (Switch 2 will no doubt only expound upon this notion).

The Switch platform has sold 140+ million units all the while not receiving an official price drop (selling very well going on its 8th year on the market). So I'm not sure how 3ds is relevant at all, because it couldn't come close to this level of success even with all of the many iterations it received. Also no other manufacturers moved to make a bunch of handheld gaming devices modeled after the 3ds, but the Switch has many spawns out here and yet the anticipation is at a breakneck pace to cover anything remotely related to Switch 2 news on a weekly basis...
We're comparing the Switch 2 to the 3DS because Nintendo once again has to figure out how to properly pivot from an absolute juggernaut piece of hardware to a brand new platform. The fact that the Switch is amazingly successful doesn't mean the Switch 2 is primed for success because... well, the 3DS launch is right there as an example of Nintendo nearly botching what, for all intents and purposes, should have been a sure thing coming off of the Nintendo "2nd best-selling console of all time" DS. You can say that the Switch managed to do X, Y, and Z, but that doesn't mean anything if the next system can't properly follow it up.
 
An AI "optimizing itself" is something that only happens in science fiction.
Examples of that has already happened multiple times. A well known example: DeepGo playing against itself millions of times to optimize its own chess strategy.
A lot of that sort of talk originates from very handwavy (and frankly pretty cultish) "singularity" discourse that treats intelligence as some sort of fundamental quantity that's always going up which is just completely detached from the real world.
LOL okay, done with poorly veiled backhanded comments yet?
AI is not a young field of computer science,
I'm aware. I took AI course in college more than a decade ago and have been following AI news long before generative AI and LLMs have been making the news lately.
and it is one typified by boom and bust cycles where new developments get massively overhyped until the reality of what the techniques are actually capable of sets in and interest dries up. The next AI winter is most assuredly coming with the current "generative AI" bubble that's formed, and it may not even be all that far off.
If you haven't been following the recent advancements in AI technology, I don't think I'm the one who's detached from reality. The type of advances we're seeing in particular are not just going to fade into the background like a passing fad.

I am getting the sense you just trying to antagonize me particularly with those backhanded comments so I'm not going to engage with you anymore.
 
Directly inferring the future through history without realizing the causes of history will only lead to errors.
Basically, it's just like NS2 is bound to fail because Wiiu failed.
 
Directly inferring the future through history without realizing the causes of history will only lead to errors.
Basically, it's just like NS2 is bound to fail because Wiiu failed.
just like directs, i don't believe in patterns, but understanding what happened in the past can give you insight into the future.

Switch 2 is in a very different place than Nintendo's Wii U and 3DS, i'd argue it's in a very good position to succeed because the conditions are so much different and especially Nintendo's competitors are struggling and the AAA industry in general is in a mess, Xbox is in collapse, PS5 falling behind PS4, unsustainable dev /financial models for game development making Nintendo's installed base more valuable to third parties after an already established success with some publishers/devs making bank on Switch. So there's already established relationships with No (or less) convincing required to get support.
 
I wonder if Pokemon Gen 10 releasing in Fall 2026 would be a dedicated Switch 2 game, or if it would be cross-gen.

Switch 2 would presumably be at around 40-50 million units sold by then.
There is zero chance Gen 10 is on Switch

Pokemon is a huge system seller and Pokemon being on Switch is part of the reason why it's such a big hit
 
Maybe they're acquiring a company "platinum games ,etc... "

from the last Q&A:
"Although development resources could be expanded through M&A, first we will work within the company with our developers, who thoroughly understand and have built up the Nintendo brand over the years, to have them nurture talent who can drive Nintendo's future development."

I don't think that's necessary.

Nintendo works with so many partners.

WayForward, Arc System Works, Platinum, Arika, Koei Tecmo, Ubisoft, MercurySteam, Iron Galaxy, Eighting, ArtePiazza, Atlus, Grezzo, the list goes on...

No need to acquire studios when you can just hire them for individual projects.
 
Unified software development teams. The most underrated, biggest, and best game changer to how Nintendo operates. With time, It will prove to be better than the blue ocean strategy pivot Iwata did /hot take
Didn't Iwata plan this though? I think they were trying to consolidate their business way earlier than the Switch, but the tech just wasn't there yet. They couldn't give up the handheld market due to how successful it is.
 
I don't think that's necessary.

Nintendo works with so many partners.

WayForward, Arc System Works, Platinum, Arika, Koei Tecmo, Ubisoft, MercurySteam, Iron Galaxy, Eighting, ArtePiazza, Atlus, Grezzo, the list goes on...

No need to acquire studios when you can just hire them for individual projects.
No need to acquire studios in Japan when you can just pirate the important ones. As for western studios, they would have to acquire them.

For example, Fujibayashi (Zelda Director) was originally from Capcom (Oracles, Four Swords, Minish Cap).
 
No need to acquire studios in Japan when you can just pirate the important ones. As for western studios, they would have to acquire them.

For example, Fujibayashi (Zelda Director) was originally from Capcom (Oracles, Four Swords, Minish Cap).

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All kidding aside.

The prospect of what Nintendo and their partners can do with this level of power on Switch 2 is just exciting to think about :D
 
Examples of that has already happened multiple times. A well known example: DeepGo playing against itself millions of times to optimize its own chess strategy.
The way you phrased that seemed to suggest a much stronger claim than just training a model against itself (something that probably wouldn't have the desired result on the sort of unsupervised learning an LLM does).
LOL okay, done with poorly veiled backhanded comments yet?
I'm aware. I took AI course in college more than a decade ago and have been following AI news long before generative AI and LLMs have been making the news lately.
If you haven't been following the recent advancements in AI technology, I don't think I'm the one who's detached from reality. The type of advances we're seeing in particular are not just going to fade into the background like a passing fad.

I am getting the sense you just trying to antagonize me particularly with those backhanded comments so I'm not going to engage with you anymore.
My intention was not to antagonize, I appear to have misread your previous post as espousing more of a view that AGI was going to spontaneously emerge from LLMs, a view that I do genuinely think has some very cult-y roots, though obviously not everyone who thinks that is even aware of where it comes from. If you look deep enough into certain AI booster circles, you start to find people who seem to think they have some sort of divine imperative to push towards some nebulous singularity at all costs, so I'm a bit sensitive to when it seems like the conversation is drifting in that direction.

But yeah, LLMs are very much in their fad phase right now. There are a myriad of reasons the technique is most likely not sustainable long term, including, but not limited to, the massive (and currently heavily subsidized) costs to run them, many deployments being of dubious utility and/or quite reckless, some serious ethical concerns in both data collection and certain deployments, and most of the potential datasets becoming increasingly poisoned with generated content. The ingredients for an AI winter are all there, it's just a matter of what will properly kick it off.

And so we're clear, I'm not saying they'll go away entirely, just recede a lot to where their limits don't matter so much.
 
nintendo itself grew only by 35 (they transfered some staff to nintendo systems so we cant know the real number) nintendo as a whole counting all first party studios and branches worldwide hired 400
that nice, this will help on next gen development
 
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I'd love to hear more of this. We never get this kind of insight into what Nintendo really thinks about their own products.

It’s not often I can talk with Nintendo employees (When I go to Japan for events) and when I do I have to be careful and they have to be careful but sometimes we can get some interesting tidbits about past events. The 3DS being a gut punch is something they’ve all expressed as if it was a company wide shock.

Another interesting one is apparently back when the Wii-u was winding down. Apparently there was a company wide initiative to allow for more younger developers to take an active role in idea creation and overall game direction. I vaguely remember this maybe being in an Iwata asks segment or something but they took it very seriously and that was viewed as a major success as the years went on. So much so the employees I spoke with were thrilled about it.

Didn't Iwata plan this though? I think they were trying to consolidate their business way earlier than the Switch, but the tech just wasn't there yet. They couldn't give up the handheld market due to how successful it is.

He might have. I have no clue who planned it specifically or when but it’s like a big fruit tree that just keeps on giving. I don’t think many will argue with me when I say the switch had some of the highest quality software in Nintendo’s history. Even with a global pandemic. I feel this is a big reason for that and what I mentioned in the above quote about younger developers being allowed to take more of an active role in game direction.
 
We're comparing the Switch 2 to the 3DS because Nintendo once again has to figure out how to properly pivot from an absolute juggernaut piece of hardware to a brand new platform. The fact that the Switch is amazingly successful doesn't mean the Switch 2 is primed for success because... well, the 3DS launch is right there as an example of Nintendo nearly botching what, for all intents and purposes, should have been a sure thing coming off of the Nintendo "2nd best-selling console of all time" DS. You can say that the Switch managed to do X, Y, and Z, but that doesn't mean anything if the next system can't properly follow it up.

Again just for reference the DS launched for $130 and the 3DS launched for $250...

We get that the Switch is successful and many of us have already discussed Nintendo's failure to properly transition from one successful platform to the other. My confusion is in why are we discussing this in the hardware tech thread when we pretty much know most of the specs for Switch 2.
 
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