Discussion Will 2024 have no mainline Directs? Is this another 2016/2020 situation?

[Ricimer]

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Nintendo infamously didn't have any mainline Nintendo Directs in 2020, opting instead of have Partner Showcase mini events throughout the Summer (likely out of contractual obligations). The gap from 9/4/2019 to 2/17/2021 remains the longest gap between Directs in modern history, understandably with COVID!

With new hardware rumored to be delayed into 2025 and zero murmurings of a reveal or other mainline Directs anytime soon, are we looking to break that record this year?

Based on past precedent with the Switch 1, Nintendo loves keeping their cards close to their chest and only play when forced to. Next gen hardware was announced in 2015 with radio silence and minimal Directs until the hardware teaser in October 2016. It took until January 2017 to get a full fledged reveal event with games for the Switch 1.

I fear we're looking at a similar situation with the Switch 2.

Nintendo is self-admittedly weary of hardware transitions after the Wii U, so what makes sense? Follow the Switch 1's successful marketing playbook to a tee! That means a "new hardware" confirmation at the FY meeting this May, a hardware concept reveal in the Fall, then a proper blowout event in January 2025 finally going over the games/details. Essentially:

"New hardware" confirmation in May -> Concept teaser trailer in the Fall -> Blowout reveal event in January 2025.

That leaves mainline Directs in tricky spot. Assuming this is the Switch 2 reveal schedule, we're not due for a huge Nintendo Direct/reveal event involving it until January 2025. Will we get any major Nintendo Directs for the Switch 1 between now and then, or just announcements on social media and partner showcases to reveal the rest of Switch 1's 2024 lineup?

The latter seems likely to me, I don't think the Switch 1 has any major games left ouside of ports. But what do you guys think?

 

[Wockio]

There will be first party games for the latter half of the year, so there will be at least one general direct.

"New hardware" confirmation in May -> Concept teaser trailer in the Fall -> Blowout reveal event in January 2025.

Where does the launch game reveal fit into this?

This is what people are missing when they think Nintendo will do an exact repeat of the Switch strategy. They could get away with not showing the console because Zelda was also coming out for Wii U, which meant they could show everything about the game in detail before announcing the Switch.
This is a different scenario unless you believe the launch game will also be cross-gen, which I find extremely hard to believe with the power gap between Switch and Switch Next.

If Switch Next is coming out with a big 3D Mario game as speculated, expect the full blowout on October at the very latest.

 

[Ricimer]

There will be first party games for the latter half of the year, so there will be at least one general direct.


Where does the launch game reveal fit into this?
This is what people are missing when they think Nintendo will do an exact repeat of the Switch strategy. They could get away with not showing the console because Zelda was also coming out for Wii U, which meant they could show everything about the game in detail before announcing the Switch.
This is a different scenario unless you believe the launch game will also be cross-gen, which I find extremely hard to believe with the power gap between Switch and Switch Next.

I do not believe that's necessarily true. They are increasingly revealing first party games through social media announcements or latching onto partner showcases/other events (e.g. Endless Ocean). They can easily do that with the rest of 2024's lineup if it is light and mainly ports/remasters.

They don't need to reveal the Switch 2's lineup before January 2025, shitty as that is to the diehard fans. Marketing wise they'll be fine. We know they love these super short reveal-to-launch intervals, they don't impact the sales from mainstream audiences they'll hear about the games no matter what if they play traditional ads.

 

[oomoepoo]

I think we'll see something around june at the latest. At the very least we'll get something around TGS I'd wager, regardless of whether or not they've revealed their new toy by then.

 

[BotenAnna]

There will be no more Nintendo Directs. Ever.

 

[DittoM]

Nah, nothing until next year. We may get a mini or some surprise announcements like The Origami King in 2020 but I think Nintendo first party is done with Switch and is preparing for Switch 2 in 2025. At most we’ll get even more remakes of Mario games but I’m not expecting more than that, sadly.

 

[Danny]

Nintendo chooses the worst possible future: No mention of Switch 2, and no new directs and software releases. Just an empty, dead year, which Nintendo somehow remains convinced can be saved by just denying coming hardware, when the lack of new software will seal the fate of the Switch this year anyway.

 

[Ricimer]

Nintendo chooses the worst possible future: No mention of Switch 2, and no new directs and software releases. Just an empty, dead year, which Nintendo somehow remains convinced can be saved by just denying coming hardware, when the lack of new software will seal the fate of the Switch this year anyway.

I feel like this is sadly realistic.

...Outside of the no software releases part! They would never go 6 months with literally zero first party releases. That is way too pessemisitt. Ports and remakes announced on social media for the second half of 2024 is way way more likely imo

 

[Kevin]

I have looked into the darkness of the void and all I saw was an endless ocean of joycon drifts and no Nintendo news.

I'm sorry everyone!

 

[ITSMILNER]

I think we get a General in June, they need to shape out the rest of 2024 in terms of Nintendo games.

 

[Wockio]

We know they love these super short reveal-to-launch intervals, they don't impact the sales from mainstream audiences they'll hear about the games no matter what if they play traditional ads.

For smaller games. Every major release has had at least 6 months between reveal and release except maybe Mario Wonder.

I think you overestimate how many people find out about this stuff through TV ads, specially in 2024. A larger reveal to release period allows you to launch more trailers and generate more hype as the launch date approaches.

 

[BowserIsMyFather]

There's another general Direct coming, probably summer. There's absolutely no way they don't talk about the latter half of the year.

 

[FiniteInfinities]

If nothing else was coming for the rest of the year why would Nintendo pack all of there releases into the first half? I'm expecting at least 4 more releases for the rest of the year that we currently don't know about. I think there should be enough first party content left for one final Switch 1 general direct this summer or at worst a solid Direct mini. We still don't even know what there holiday game will be!

Nintendo only announced games through social media during the pandemic because they couldn't record one (Origami King) or when they don't want to feature a first party game in a direct (1-2 Switch).

 

[BlackthornOrion]

I think there will be one in mid-late June, before Luigi's Mansion 2 HD releases

I just don't see them getting to a point where they have no 1st party games with release dates/windows, so I expect there will be a general direct before everything they currently have on their calendar is out

 

[Ricimer]

For smaller games. Every major release has had at least 6 months between reveal and release except maybe Mario Wonder.

I think you overestimate how many people find out about this stuff through TV ads, specially in 2024. A larger reveal to release period allows you to launch more trailers and generate more hype as the launch date approaches.

I agree about the marketing benefits of longer reveal windows. But I believe Nintendo has been taking their love of shorter windows to an extreme lately these past few years. I think that trend is only going to continue going into the Switch 2 era.

 

[Wockio]

I agree about the marketing benefits of longer reveal windows. But I believe Nintendo has been taking their love of shorter windows to an extreme lately these past few years. I think that trend is only going to continue going into the Switch 2 era.

Even the shortest of windows have only been around 4 months. You are suggesting 2 months for a brand new 3D Mario game.

 

[Ricimer]

Even the shortest of windows have only been around 4 months. You are suggesting 2 months for a brand new 3D Mario game.

I don't think that's impossible. Mario Wonder was 4 months between reveal and release. They launched Metroid Prime 1 Remastered with zero time between through the eShop release. Maybe the big launch day game (probably 3D Mario) is teased in the Fall 2024 hardware reveal trailer, like how Odyssey was back in 2016.

I'm just not expecting any formal game reveals until that January 2025 reveal event.

 

[the_marmolade]

It will, Nintendo just announce everything they had for first half in advance than it usually does. June/Summer Direct will be a mainline one as many second half titles have yet been announced.

 

[Ricimer]

It will, Nintendo just announce everything they had for first half in advance than it usually does. June/Summer Direct will be a mainline one as many second half titles have yet been announced.

They could announce their second half through social media posts and latching onto other events like Partner showcases.

Are we expecting anything major for the Switch 1 in H2 this year? I am personally not seeing anything beyond ports and minor titles. This is definitely a weaker year.

 

[the_marmolade]

They could announced their second half through social media posts and latching onto other events like Partner showcases.

Are we expecting anything major for the Switch 1 in H2 this year? I am personally not seeing anything beyond ports and minor titles. This is definitely a weaker year.

Metroid Prime 4 and another Fire Emblem is mainline direct worthy throw in Wind Waker/Twilight Princess port then they are golden for the summer.

 

[Ricimer]

Metroid Prime 4 and another Fire Emblem is mainline direct worthy throw in Wind Waker/Twilight Princess port then they are golden for the summer.

I think Prime 4 is cross-gen and not this year.

Fire Emblem I'm not sure the development status of the next game and what the release expectation is from fans. Off the cuff I would expect the next game to be Switch 2, or cross gen, as the latest game was only a year ago.

WW/TP could be social media worthy.

 

[MisterSpo]

The software release schedule is empty of dated games after Luigi's Mansion 2 HD. They're not going to go seven to nine months absent of any first party releases, and their preferred method for announcing the overwhelming majority of first party games remains the Direct format. Even Endless Ocean Luminous got a spot in the Direct Partner Showcase rather than a standalone announcement, and given I expect Nintendo have 3 to 5 games launching in the second half of the year (maybe more if there are digital only games), a normal Direct is easy to manage.

That being the case, I think we'll get a regular summer Direct to confirm Switch 1 games up to Christmas at least.

 

[Felony]

No. It's a pattern. Every four years. Every. 4 Metroids

 

[BassForever]

This discussion should be part of the Direct Speculation thread - BassForever, Zellia, BLG

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